Claudia Sheinbaum made history on October 1, 2024, when she took office as Mexico’s first female president. On Monday, a month after a year in power, the president presents her first government report, maintaining a high popularity in the polls and while her party predominates in both houses of Congress. At the same time, it also faces security challenges and constant tensions with the United States.
PhD in Energy Engineering, left-wing militant and former head of government in Mexico City, where she had also been Secretary of the Environment and head of delegation of Tlalpan, Sheinbaum says that during her administration, she will seek to build the second floor of the fourth transformation. This concept was coined by his predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2018-2024), who affirms that in his manda, a new stage began for Mexico, different from that led by the governments he describes as neoliberals.
At what pace is the construction of that second floor progressing, and what results has it had for Mexico? The five-area review shows a picture.
In popularity, follow the honeymoon.
After 11 months in office, Sheinbaum maintains a high level of popularity, according to different polls. The measurement that BuendÃa & Márquez published on August 25 says the president has 70% approval. In November, when he had been in the presidency for a month, he had 74 per cent, while reaching the cap in February, with 80 per cent.
Jorge BuendÃa, director of the polling house, attributed this latest fact to the fact that the citizenry then supported the way in which Sheinbaum responded to the first measures of the President of the United States, Donald Trump, who on January 20 began his second term in the White House and threatened to impose tariffs on Mexican products, among other actions.
BuendÃa told CNN that Sheinbaum is still in the honeymoon that several presidents live at the beginning of their efforts, with levels similar to those that López Obrador had and above the average of other former presidents.
The BuendÃa & Márquez survey also shows that the best evaluated item for Sheinbaum was Social Programs/redistribution, with 47 percent of the positive mentions, while the worst evaluated was “Security/Narcotics,” with 15 percent of the negative mentions. For BuendÃa, the latter theme and the economy represent the main challenges to Sheinbaum’s popularity.
The issues that have been recurrent in Mexican public opinion, such as the large deficits of governments, are public security and the economy. There’s nothing new. Mexicans want more security, we want to improve our economic situation, and we want to improve our income. It remains the main demand. As they move, it will affect the presidential evaluation for better or worse, he said.
Lights and shadows in security
The importance of citizen security for the country is not only reflected in the polls. Since she was on the campaign trail, Sheinbaum herself acknowledged that this is one of Mexico’s main outstanding issues and, once she took office, marked it among her priorities.
At the head of the Ministry of Security and Citizen Protection (SSPC), he appointed Omar GarcÃa Harfuch, an experienced official in the bouquet and who was head of the Police of the Mexican capital when she was head of government (2018-2023). In addition, the president announced some reforms in this area, strengthening intelligence work to prevent crime, another to increase coordination between institutions, and said there would be more operations in violent regions due to the activity of criminal groups.
During the first 10 months of Sheinbaum’s management from October to July, 22,073 wilful homicides were recorded in Mexico, according to official figures. This represents a decrease of 23.67% compared to the first 10 months of López Obrador’s term. Femicide and kidnapping also declined in that period, while extortion and human trafficking increased.
Sheinbaum and his security cabinet continue to highlight the decrease in homicides as an achievement, but specialists such as Ernesto López Portillo, coordinator of the Citizen Security Program of the Ibero-American University, campus Mexico City, ask to observe these statistics with caution.
Lopez Portillo told CNN that there are elements to think that the official figures do not accurately reflect reality. Among them, he points out that there are no records of how many of the missing persons were killed or how many clandestine graves are in the country, factors that could make the number of homicides look lower than it really is.
If the president uses the number of homicides as her main indicator of success, then we propose to accept external specialized audits on the construction of data and improve traceability, she said.
The expert considers that the Sheinbaum Government has had “lights and shadows” in security. On the one hand, she said, the president has taken positive steps in recognizing the seriousness of the problem and building civil leadership. Led by GarcÃa Harfuch. But at the other end, he added, the darkest of the shadows is at the high levels of impunity that the prosecution system does not have the capacity to investigate and prosecute crimes properly, in their opinion.
CNN contacted the SSPC for comment on the allegations and is awaiting a response.
The challenge called Donald Trump
Another axis that has marked the start of the Sheinbaum Presidency has been Mexico’s relationship with the United States, a country with which it shares more than 3,100 kilometers of border and which is its main trading partner.
Several CNN experts consulted said relations have been strained since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, raising with Mexico the challenge of dealing with a president who demands to stem the flow of undocumented migrants and drugs to his country or threatens to impose tariffs. Sheinbaum says his strategy is to have a cold head against Trump, but he has raised the tone of his statements on issues such as the possibility of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) looking to conduct operations in Mexico.
Internationalist Fausto Pretelin says Sheinbaum is in a complicated situation, given that at his trial. Trump is demanding more of what he demanded from López Obrador during his first term (2017-2021) and, in addition, can use as a tool of pressure the next renegotiation of the Treaty between Mexico, the US, and Canada (T-MEC), scheduled for 2026.
“Sheinbaum is clear that the T-MEC must be saved at whatever cost,” Pretelin told CNN, arguing that a possible disappearance of the trade agreement would be an economic crisis of enormous damage to Mexico.
With this context, he added, the most predictable scenario is for both countries to remain in a constant “stretched and loose” on the issues that cross the bilateral relationship.
Ideas we see, growth we still don’t have
In economics, Sheinbaum received a country whose Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 1.5 percent in 2024, according to World Bank data. Several specialists point out that this percentage is insufficient to generate the sources of employment and the services necessary to meet the demand of the population.
Sheinbaum says his government will boost economic growth with measures such as the promotion of investment, public work, and the strengthening of state energy companies, Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) and the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE). However, official figures so far show no significant variations. The National Institute of Statistics and GeographyINEGIgi) reported on 22 August that GDP in the second quarter of the year grew by 1.2 per cent compared to the same period in 2024.
Moreover, in the challenge of making GDP grow more, some specialists add that of generating public policies that go beyond giving resources to people through social programs and that break the “cycles of poverty” that affect a part of the population.
RocÃo Espinosa, a researcher at the Center for Espinosa Yglesias Studies, told CNN that Sheinbaum’s promise to create a National Care System is pending, which will allow the population to have state support for the care of their children or older adults. Such an instance, he said, would particularly benefit women, who would have greater freedom to enter the labour market.
The creation of a National Care System is fundamental, the specialist said. “Yes, it is raised, but we don’t know where it’s going,” he added.
So far, the Presidency has not provided further information on this proposal or responded to CNN’s consultations.
With a free way to pass reforms
Sheinbaum won the 2024 election with 35.9 million votes, almost 60% of the total, but was not the only one with a blunt result in her favor. The ruling Morena party, and its allies, the Labor (PT) and Green Ecologist (PVEM) parties, also achieved majorities in the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies, which has paved the way for them to approve reforms, even of constitutional rank.
According to the Legislative Information System (SIL), from 1 October to date, 40 of Sheinbaum’s initiatives – 93.02 % of the total – have already been approved and published. The others are pending in commissions, and only one has been withdrawn.
Sergio Bárcena, research professor of the Monterrey Technology and founder of the Observatory Parliamentary Bureau, told CNN that in the approval of these proposals, the “discipline” of the official bloc, in front of dispersed opposition parties, has different priorities and strategies.
For Bárcena, this political scenario leads to the expectation that the Morena-PT-PVEM bloc will remain united, at least during the two years remaining for the current Legislature – Mexico will hold intermediate elections in 2027 to renew the Chamber of Deputies, and that this same alliance will promote the electoral reform that Sheinbaum is designing through a new presidential commission.
“At least during this first triennium of his term, this will be his great reform,” the specialist said.
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